Snow Briefing · Ski area
Bear Valley, CA
Ski area • base 6,470 ft • summit 8,494 ft • NBM 18Z 15 Nov 2026 • issued 19:39Z
The blend has 14.8″ of snow for Bear Valley over the next three days, 5.1″ of it in the first 24 hours, and 69.4″ over its ten days. Verdict: all hands.
The next ten days
Plow verdict on the 72-hour total: All hands
| Horizon | Snow | Range 10–90% | Ice | Chance ≥1″ | Chance ≥6″ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next 24 h | 5.1″ | 2.2–8.4″ | 0.01″ | 97% | 29% |
| Next 48 h | 10.6″ | 4.1–18.7″ | 0.01″ | 99% | 75% |
| Next 72 h | 14.8″ | — | 0.01″ | — | — |
| 5 days | 52.6″ | — | — | — | — |
| 7 days | 58.5″ | — | — | — | — |
| 10 days | 69.4″ | — | — | — | — |
Snow is the blend's deterministic forecast; the range is its 10th to 90th percentile and the chances are its own exceedance probabilities. Ice is freezing-rain accretion.
Day by day
| Climate day (12Z–12Z) | Snow | 90th pct | Chance ≥1″ | Chance ≥6″ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 17 Nov | 10.0″ | 16.7″ | 99% | 75% |
| Wed 18 Nov | 0.3″ | — | — | — |
| Thu 19 Nov | 24.8″ | — | — | — |
| Fri 20 Nov | 15.5″ | — | — | — |
| Sat 21 Nov | 1.9″ | — | — | — |
| Sun 22 Nov | 4.0″ | — | — | — |
| Mon 23 Nov | 3.6″ | — | — | — |
| Tue 24 Nov | 1.6″ | — | — | — |
| Wed 25 Nov | 5.7″ | — | — | — |
Climate days run 12Z to 12Z, the window the NWS national snowfall analysis scores. Percentiles and chances are available for the first two days.
Two weeks out · ECMWF ensemble
| By | p10 | Median | p90 | Members ≥1″ | Members ≥6″ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 3 | 7.7″ | 10.2″ | 12.3″ | 100% | 96% |
| Day 5 | 21.5″ | 32.6″ | 49.3″ | 100% | 100% |
| Day 7 | 22.0″ | 34.7″ | 57.0″ | 100% | 100% |
| Day 10 | 27.7″ | 44.6″ | 73.0″ | 100% | 100% |
| Day 15 | 37.9″ | 62.2″ | 95.2″ | 100% | 100% |
ECMWF open data, 50 perturbed members at 0.25°, snow at a fixed 10:1 ratio, run 00Z 15 Nov. Cumulative from the run.
Density, level and trend
| Density at 48 h | 4.7 lb/ft³ |
| Load at 48 h | 4.2 lb/ft² |
| Snow-to-liquid ratio at 48 h | 13:1 |
| Snow level at 24 h / 48 h | 6,194 ft / — |
| Freezing rain chance, 48 h | 0% |
| Trend | up 1.7″ vs the previous run (48 h) |
How good is this forecast?
The blend's day-1 snowfall this season, scored against the NWS national snowfall analysis: mean absolute error 1.12″, bias −0.21″, critical success index at 6″ 0.06 over 71 scored days. Last scored day: 14 Nov 2026.
Nearby briefings
forecastflakes.com/products/bear-valley-ca · NWS National Blend of Models · ECMWF open data · © 2026 Forecast Flakes · not an official warning source