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FORECAST FLAKES
Snow · Ice · Freezing Rain · US & Canada

The Flake Engine

Live · NWS gridded forecast

Type any city in the United States. You get the moment the first flakes arrive, the storm's timeline hour by hour, the total snow and ice, and a straight answer on whether it needs plowing.

Pick a city to read the grid.

The 2025–26 Replay

Guide · how last winter actually went

Winter is over, so here it is scored. Every number below is observed — November through March against the 1996–2025 normals, with each state's December–February mean ranked against every winter back to 1951.

Month by month

National temperature departure for each month of the season. Blue is colder than normal, red is warmer; the number is the departure in °F.

Every state

Seasonal departure, where the Dec–Feb mean ranks among all winters since 1951, heating degree days against normal, and days at or below freezing so far in 2026. Click a column to sort.

State Nov–Mar vs normal Dec–Feb rank Heating degree days Precip Days ≤32 °F

Canada

Services · Environment Canada

The NWS grid stops at the border, so Canada runs on Environment and Climate Change Canada city points with current conditions and the public forecast.

The Two-Week Outlook

Live · ECMWF 50-member ensemble

Past a week a single forecast stops meaning much, so this range is run as a 50-member ensemble. The band is where 80% of the members land, the line is the median, and the bars underneath are the share of members that are below freezing and the share that are below freezing while precipitation is accumulating.

80% of members Median 0 °C Below freezing Freezing + precipitating

What this is not. No model in this archive publishes a snowfall variable, so this is not a snow forecast. "Freezing and precipitating" is the honest limit of what the data supports — it tells you when to worry, not how much will fall.

What Drives the Forecast

Guide · model status

A winter forecast is really several forecasts at different ranges, each from a different model. This is exactly which ones are wired into this site today, and which are still waiting on a data feed — no range is filled in with a model that isn't actually running.

Disclaimer. Forecast Flakes presents data from the U.S. National Weather Service and Environment and Climate Change Canada for general information only. It is not an official source and must not be used for the protection of life or property. For winter storm warnings, travel decisions and road conditions, follow your local NWS or ECCC office and your state, provincial or municipal transportation department.