RUN
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PEAK ON THIS MAP
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GRID
2.5 KM · LAMBERT
BUILT
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Elsewhere: eighteen winters observed · the NBM, live · a briefing for any place
Base and summit
Snowfall since the run began, read off each 2.5 km cell's curve at the lift terminals' own heights.
What this is. One ECMWF IFS run (0.1°, about 9 km underneath) put on the real
terrain with Forecast Flakes' downscaler. Where the water falls follows PRISM's
1991–2020 normals inside the half-degree footprint the model actually resolves, and each
footprint keeps the model's own total — the terrain moves water, it never adds any, so a
model that is too dry in the mountains stays too dry. Whether it is snow is decided
from the wet-bulb profile at each 2.5 km cell's real height, and how deep it piles
from the Kuchera ratio of the column above that height. Below 2.5 km, each cell carries a
curve of snowfall against elevation, read at the lift terminals for the table and at
~60 m terrain for the boxes over the big ranges. The ratio is climatological: a storm
from an unusual direction loads the slope the average storm loads. This is a forecast, not
a warning — for those, the National Weather Service.