Snow Briefing · Ski area
Sierra-at-Tahoe Ski Resort, CA
Ski area • base 6,637 ft • summit 8,788 ft • NBM 18Z 15 Nov 2026 • issued 19:39Z
The blend has 12.4″ of snow for Sierra-at-Tahoe Ski Resort over the next three days, 4.5″ of it in the first 24 hours, and 58.2″ over its ten days. Verdict: all hands.
The next ten days
Plow verdict on the 72-hour total: All hands
| Horizon | Snow | Range 10–90% | Ice | Chance ≥1″ | Chance ≥6″ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next 24 h | 4.5″ | 2.0–6.9″ | 0.00″ | 97% | 22% |
| Next 48 h | 9.1″ | 2.9–14.9″ | 0.00″ | 97% | 66% |
| Next 72 h | 12.4″ | — | 0.00″ | — | — |
| 5 days | 42.4″ | — | — | — | — |
| 7 days | 47.2″ | — | — | — | — |
| 10 days | 58.2″ | — | — | — | — |
Snow is the blend's deterministic forecast; the range is its 10th to 90th percentile and the chances are its own exceedance probabilities. Ice is freezing-rain accretion.
Day by day
| Climate day (12Z–12Z) | Snow | 90th pct | Chance ≥1″ | Chance ≥6″ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 17 Nov | 8.8″ | 13.8″ | 97% | 66% |
| Wed 18 Nov | 0.2″ | — | — | — |
| Thu 19 Nov | 20.6″ | — | — | — |
| Fri 20 Nov | 11.5″ | — | — | — |
| Sat 21 Nov | 1.3″ | — | — | — |
| Sun 22 Nov | 3.5″ | — | — | — |
| Mon 23 Nov | 2.9″ | — | — | — |
| Tue 24 Nov | 1.2″ | — | — | — |
| Wed 25 Nov | 6.2″ | — | — | — |
Climate days run 12Z to 12Z, the window the NWS national snowfall analysis scores. Percentiles and chances are available for the first two days.
Two weeks out · ECMWF ensemble
| By | p10 | Median | p90 | Members ≥1″ | Members ≥6″ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 3 | 5.9″ | 7.4″ | 9.7″ | 100% | 88% |
| Day 5 | 17.6″ | 26.0″ | 40.2″ | 100% | 100% |
| Day 7 | 17.7″ | 28.5″ | 44.9″ | 100% | 100% |
| Day 10 | 21.6″ | 34.5″ | 57.9″ | 100% | 100% |
| Day 15 | 31.3″ | 51.2″ | 83.3″ | 100% | 100% |
ECMWF open data, 50 perturbed members at 0.25°, snow at a fixed 10:1 ratio, run 00Z 15 Nov. Cumulative from the run.
Density, level and trend
| Density at 48 h | 4.4 lb/ft³ |
| Load at 48 h | 3.4 lb/ft² |
| Snow-to-liquid ratio at 48 h | 14:1 |
| Snow level at 24 h / 48 h | 6,168 ft / — |
| Freezing rain chance, 48 h | 0% |
| Trend | up 2.2″ vs the previous run (48 h) |
How good is this forecast?
The blend's day-1 snowfall this season, scored against the NWS national snowfall analysis: mean absolute error 1.12″, bias −0.21″, critical success index at 6″ 0.06 over 71 scored days. Last scored day: 14 Nov 2026.
Nearby briefings
forecastflakes.com/products/sierra-at-tahoe-ski-resort-ca · NWS National Blend of Models · ECMWF open data · © 2026 Forecast Flakes · not an official warning source