Snow Briefing · Ski area
Mount Ashland, OR
Ski area • base 5,226 ft • summit 7,406 ft • NBM 18Z 15 Nov 2026 • issued 19:39Z
The blend has 4.4″ of snow for Mount Ashland over the next three days, 0.6″ of it in the first 24 hours, and 12.4″ over its ten days. Verdict: plow it.
The next ten days
Plow verdict on the 72-hour total: Plow it
| Horizon | Snow | Range 10–90% | Ice | Chance ≥1″ | Chance ≥6″ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next 24 h | 0.6″ | 0.0–1.5″ | 0.00″ | 17% | 0% |
| Next 48 h | 0.8″ | 0.0–2.2″ | 0.00″ | 20% | 0% |
| Next 72 h | 4.4″ | — | 0.00″ | — | — |
| 5 days | 5.3″ | — | — | — | — |
| 7 days | 8.7″ | — | — | — | — |
| 10 days | 12.4″ | — | — | — | — |
Snow is the blend's deterministic forecast; the range is its 10th to 90th percentile and the chances are its own exceedance probabilities. Ice is freezing-rain accretion.
Day by day
| Climate day (12Z–12Z) | Snow | 90th pct | Chance ≥1″ | Chance ≥6″ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 17 Nov | 0.3″ | 0.9″ | 8% | 0% |
| Wed 18 Nov | 1.3″ | — | — | — |
| Thu 19 Nov | 2.9″ | — | — | — |
| Fri 20 Nov | 0.3″ | — | — | — |
| Sat 21 Nov | 0.8″ | — | — | — |
| Sun 22 Nov | 2.4″ | — | — | — |
| Mon 23 Nov | 0.6″ | — | — | — |
| Tue 24 Nov | 0.5″ | — | — | — |
| Wed 25 Nov | 2.2″ | — | — | — |
Climate days run 12Z to 12Z, the window the NWS national snowfall analysis scores. Percentiles and chances are available for the first two days.
Two weeks out · ECMWF ensemble
| By | p10 | Median | p90 | Members ≥1″ | Members ≥6″ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 3 | 0.2″ | 0.9″ | 2.4″ | 44% | 0% |
| Day 5 | 5.2″ | 8.1″ | 11.5″ | 100% | 76% |
| Day 7 | 6.0″ | 8.9″ | 12.9″ | 100% | 90% |
| Day 10 | 7.9″ | 11.5″ | 18.2″ | 100% | 100% |
| Day 15 | 10.6″ | 18.0″ | 27.7″ | 100% | 100% |
ECMWF open data, 50 perturbed members at 0.25°, snow at a fixed 10:1 ratio, run 00Z 15 Nov. Cumulative from the run.
Density, level and trend
| Density at 48 h | 5.6 lb/ft³ |
| Load at 48 h | 0.4 lb/ft² |
| Snow-to-liquid ratio at 48 h | 11:1 |
| Snow level at 24 h / 48 h | — / — |
| Freezing rain chance, 48 h | 0% |
| Trend | down 0.4″ vs the previous run (48 h) |
How good is this forecast?
The blend's day-1 snowfall this season, scored against the NWS national snowfall analysis: mean absolute error 1.12″, bias −0.21″, critical success index at 6″ 0.06 over 71 scored days. Last scored day: 14 Nov 2026.
Nearby briefings
forecastflakes.com/products/mount-ashland-or · NWS National Blend of Models · ECMWF open data · © 2026 Forecast Flakes · not an official warning source