Snow Briefing · Ski area
Bear Canyon, MT
Ski area • base 5,303 ft • summit 6,985 ft • NBM 18Z 15 Nov 2026 • issued 19:39Z
The blend has 3.0″ of snow for Bear Canyon over the next three days, and 7.3″ over its ten days. Verdict: plow it.
The next ten days
Plow verdict on the 72-hour total: Plow it
| Horizon | Snow | Range 10–90% | Ice | Chance ≥1″ | Chance ≥6″ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next 24 h | 0.0″ | 0.0–0.0″ | 0.00″ | 0% | 0% |
| Next 48 h | 0.0″ | 0.0–0.0″ | 0.00″ | 0% | 0% |
| Next 72 h | 3.0″ | — | 0.00″ | — | — |
| 5 days | 4.4″ | — | — | — | — |
| 7 days | 6.5″ | — | — | — | — |
| 10 days | 7.3″ | — | — | — | — |
Snow is the blend's deterministic forecast; the range is its 10th to 90th percentile and the chances are its own exceedance probabilities. Ice is freezing-rain accretion.
Day by day
| Climate day (12Z–12Z) | Snow | 90th pct | Chance ≥1″ | Chance ≥6″ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 17 Nov | 0.0″ | 0.0″ | 0% | 0% |
| Wed 18 Nov | 2.8″ | — | — | — |
| Thu 19 Nov | 0.2″ | — | — | — |
| Fri 20 Nov | 0.9″ | — | — | — |
| Sat 21 Nov | 1.8″ | — | — | — |
| Sun 22 Nov | 0.7″ | — | — | — |
| Mon 23 Nov | 0.6″ | — | — | — |
| Tue 24 Nov | 0.2″ | — | — | — |
| Wed 25 Nov | 0.0″ | — | — | — |
Climate days run 12Z to 12Z, the window the NWS national snowfall analysis scores. Percentiles and chances are available for the first two days.
Two weeks out · ECMWF ensemble
| By | p10 | Median | p90 | Members ≥1″ | Members ≥6″ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 3 | 1.0″ | 3.2″ | 6.5″ | 90% | 12% |
| Day 5 | 2.6″ | 6.0″ | 10.2″ | 100% | 50% |
| Day 7 | 5.1″ | 7.8″ | 14.1″ | 100% | 78% |
| Day 10 | 5.1″ | 9.5″ | 14.5″ | 100% | 84% |
| Day 15 | 7.7″ | 12.4″ | 18.6″ | 100% | 96% |
ECMWF open data, 50 perturbed members at 0.25°, snow at a fixed 10:1 ratio, run 00Z 15 Nov. Cumulative from the run.
Density, level and trend
| Density at 48 h | — |
| Load at 48 h | — |
| Snow-to-liquid ratio at 48 h | — |
| Snow level at 24 h / 48 h | — / — |
| Freezing rain chance, 48 h | 4% |
| Trend | down 0.2″ vs the previous run (48 h) |
How good is this forecast?
The blend's day-1 snowfall this season, scored against the NWS national snowfall analysis: mean absolute error 1.12″, bias −0.21″, critical success index at 6″ 0.06 over 71 scored days. Last scored day: 14 Nov 2026.
Nearby briefings
forecastflakes.com/products/bear-canyon-mt · NWS National Blend of Models · ECMWF open data · © 2026 Forecast Flakes · not an official warning source